A Model That Never Predicts Churn Still Scores 73.5% Accuracy: The Class Imbalance Trap
A model (a program that makes predictions from data) that never looks at a single customer's details, and just guesses "will stay" for everyone, scores 73.5% accuracy, meaning 73.5% of its predictions are correct. The task is predicting churn, which means a customer leaving the service, using the public Telco Customer Churn dataset of 7,043 telecom customers. Every score below is measured on a held-out test set: 2,113 customers the models never trained on. Train an actual model on the same data, so it learns patterns from past examples using facts about each customer (called features), and accuracy climbs to 78.8%. That is 5.3 points for all that work. Except the trained model catches 41.5% of customers who actually churn, and the guess-the-same-thing baseline catches exactly 0%. Accuracy showed a 5.3-point gap and hid a jump from 0% to 41.5%. Where the Imbalance Comes From In the full dataset, 5,174 customers stayed and 1,869 churned, wh...